Cost reduction potential in solar PV systems

cost trends

The cost of PV system will continue to decline due to high PV learning rate. However there exist significant uncertainity in terms of how fast these costs can decline. In last two years the cost of PV system has declined much more faster than predicted. For example the cost of modules predicted in 2010 by Mehta and Maycock was of the order of 0.85 USD/Wp by the end of year 2015, however this has already reached of the order of 0.7 USD/WP for thin film as well as for c-Si technologies.

One of the main drivers of solar PV is the lowering in manufacturing costs. Heavy subsidies by China to its domestic manufacturers have been a major factor in driving down module prices.

In last two years the cost of PV has come down to almost half the cost prevailing two years back Earlier the trends in the utility scale PV projects was to put up 5-10 MW size of projects,

however not a days, investors are considering the sizes in the range of 25, 50 and 100 MW capacity at a single location.

Overall PV system cost reduction potential is projected to decline continuously. Although there is going to be volatility in the PV system prices in the short term, however the market in long term is going to be much more stable will experience less volatility.


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